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SPORTABLE Top Stories
- This offseason, the fantasy community has been utilizing two great sources for average draft position (ADP) data.
Myfantasyleague.com’s MFL10 ADP is extremely helpful, though some prefer the data FFCalculator.com provides.
There's been some dialogue and narratives tossed around, but no one has really compared/contrasted the differences between the two.
Who are the players with higher or lower ADPs on one site or another? What lessons can we learn from comparing and contrasting?
Let’s take a look together, and see what we come up with...
I prefer FFCalc ADP data
I prefer MFL ADP dataShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- MyFantasyLeague offers public leagues that I've talked extensively on RotoViz, ProjectRoto, and here on Sportable. However, if you're reading this, I'm sure you're more than familiar.MFL accumulates pick data for all their public leagues, and publishes it into what we'll call in this series: "MFL10 ADP." This is data from real, money leagues.FFCalculator.com offers free mock drafts against computerized opponents on their site. They aggregate the user entered picks to make what we'll call in this series "FFCalc ADP." This is data from mock drafts.
Seems real league data would be better?
Mock drafts are fine, if not blown off
We're getting human data, either way.
I'm just here for cookies.Share this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- Defined by an increase in ‘average draft pick,’ the average age for our top 25 risers is 24.65. It barely rises when looking at the top 50. [25.76].
Redefining our list by a % increase, we get a similar result. ranging from 25.1 to 25.5.
Grouping players by specific ages, about a third of these players are ages 23 & under, with another third logging in between 24 & 26.]
The list of the top 50 risers contains only 4-5 RBs, and is 3/4 full of WRs.
Read into it what you will, but MFL10 drafters love the young, developing talents, especially at WR.
Recognizing Talent, over past results
Holy "undervalued RBs" Batman
Young WRs FTWShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- The biggest issue with comparing ADP data comes from the varying roster sizes. MFL10s roster 22 while FFCalc mocks roster 15. The shorter draft and shallower bench affects draft flow immensely.
It's much easier to analyze who has a higher ADP in MFL10s than the other way around. It's also more objective. Meanwhile, analyzing who has a higher FFCalc ADP is tougher, and requires some subjective thought about how to account for the shorter draft.
We’ll do the best we can do with that, but first let’s look at the easier and more objective data.
Most of my leagues roster about 15
Most of my leagues are deeper than 15Share this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- I measured the shift in ADPs as a function of both raw draft slot increases, and a percentage increase. I came up with a list of six players MFL10 drafters just love the heck out of, when compared to FFCalc ADPs.The Michael Jordan of this MFL10 ADP Dream Team?Justin Hunter
This whole Dream Team, in ranked order:1. Justin Hunter2A Eric Decker2B DeAndre Hopkins4. Mike Evans5. Torrey Smith6. Greg JenningsWe'll dive into some possible explanations for this list, next.What surprises you most though?
Old man Jennings??? WTH
Is that a rookie on that list!?
Justin...who? What team is he on?
Do MFL10 drafters hate RBs?Share this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- Justin Hunter's MFL10 ADP is 39.43 picks higher than on FFCalc. That's over three rounds, and a 37% improvement in his draft value. Hunter literally tops the charts in both measurements.Mike Clay talked about Hunter in this Rotoworld roundtable, and Ty Miller expands on his Hunter love in this piece.Miller's piece has a dynasty focus, but it's worth noting DynastyLeagueFootball.com's staff ranks have Hunter as WR 25 overall.His breakout may be more of a question of WHEN, than if... and MFL10 drafters seem rather optimistic about his 2014 prospects.
Better draft pick in dynasty, imo
Hunter may break out sooner than later
Shocking, tbqh. Not that high on Hunter.
STFU ABOUT HUNTER AND DON'T RUIN THISShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- Studying the players who have higher MFL10 ADPs than on FFCalc, Eric Decker and DeAndre Hopkins are the 2A/2B ranked superstars.Both players' ADPs rise roughly two rounds, for a roughly 33% draft value improvement, in each case.
ADP rank, last 3 years: WR# 80, 25, & 24Finishing ranks: WR# 41, 12, & 11MFL10 drafters are showing more faith in Decker, who continually rewards those who draft him.
HOPKINSA bit of a darling of the fantasy community. While FFCalc may be stuck staring at his 800/2 line from last year, MFL10 drafters hold out hope.
Decker is my guy. Again.
Hopkins is still my guy.
Peyton on the Jets now? Did I miss that?
800/2, eh? You don't say.Share this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- Rounding out the list of top risers in MFL10s from FFCalc ADP are, in order: Mike Evans, Torrey Smith, and Greg Jennings.
Evans ranks 8th in draft slot increases, & 4th as value increase - rising over 22 picks & 24%.
Torrey ranks 10th as a draft slot riser, but it's his 5th ranked 29% value improvement that impresses.
Jennings sports a 20% value increase, but it's his 3rd ranked two round slot increase that blows minds.In this, MFL10 drafters show some rookie love, hope for continued improvements from a 4th year player, and trust for an aging veteran.
Torrey's Continued Breakout FTW
Jennings is criminally underrated
EVANS = GOAT
Odd assortment of players, indeedShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- In round one, even the smallest ADP difference has huge ramifications, so let's just take a casual look at this and not read too much into it.
1st Rounders MFL10 drafters love moreMFL10 likes early WRs, preferring DT, Dez, AJG & Calvin higher, to the tune of .75 picks [Calvin] to 1.9 [AJG] picks higher. MFL10 drafters also prefer Charles slightly over McCoy.1st Rounders FFCalc ADP love more
FFCalc ADP prefers some RB love, mainly AP [.63 inc] & Lacy 1.99 inc].In the biggest round 1 shock, FFcalc has Montee Ball as a 1st rounder![3.88 picks higher].
MFL10 Drafters sure love the early WRs
Impressive Ball love, from FFC ADP
Odd how JC/McCoy differ on each
Prefer other RBs over Ball, maybe MurrayShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- These are the players higher on MFL10 ADP, in rounds 2-4.
Second RoundJulio Jones - Borderline 1st round pick on MFL [pick 11.92] goes 23% lower [2.78 picks] on FFCalc.Alshon Jeffery - Sports the 3rd highest % value increase, at a massive 35% bump, over 6 picks higher.In the third round, MFL drafters are more trusting of sophomore players Zac Stacy & Keenan Allen, averaging together for a 5.45 pick & 19% bump. Meanwhile in the fourth round, Michael Floyd goes nearly a full round higher on MFL, an over 26% bump.These five players average age is 23.8.
Talent feverShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- As we start to look at the players higher on FFCalc than on MFL, I think you'll realize, as I have, our narrative about FFCalc is a bit false. Check out this laundry list of the highest risers in rounds 2-4:Round 2: Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Andre EllingtonRound 3: Reggie Bush, Alfred Morris, Shane Vereen, Wes WelkerRound 4: Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Bishop SankeyThe players in bold all show a 15-20% value increase.For the rest, Ellington & Vereen show the most moderate growth of 2-3 slots, while Gerhart & Sankey both move over 5-6 slots.
Shocked some of these go higher on FFC
Gerhart goes five spots earlier on FFC!?
Wow. Dude. Swag.
Not sure if these shouldn't go lower tbhShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- It's tough to say exactly how shortening draft 7 rounds would affect QB values. For sure, we'd see more QBs on the WW. [More on that later].What about the top options?The top 14 QBs on FFCalc go an average of about a round earlier, but that includes a range of over 2 rounds earlier to one QB that goes two picks later.Would you take a top 14 QB earlier in a shorter draft?Does the best-ball format drive down QB prices on MFL?How do the values look if compared to the % of draft completed, rather than overall pick number?Let's take a look together.
I expect FFCalc to love early QBs
IMO, Best-ball really changes QB ADP
Intriguing... Tell me more...
I could go for some deep dish pizzaShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- The top 14 QBs on FFCalc ADP, in order:Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Luck, Foles, RG3, Ryan, Brady, Newton, Romo, Kap, Cutler, RiversThe bolded QBs all go between 11 & 17 picks laterSpecial notes
Brees has a 40% value bump. Peyton a 45% one.Brady goes > 2 ROUNDS earlier.Newton goes about 2 picks LATER. He's the lone QB listed who does.I compared the QBs against a "% of draft completed when picked" stat. Surprisingly, only Peyton & Brees have positive scores.Perhaps shockingly, every other QB goes proportionally later in the draft, than in MFL10s.
FFCalc takes QBs LATER? Whoa
Pick #s count more than "proportionally"
Brady might be a huge MFL10 value
MFL10 QBs are going too high, it seemsShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- The last couple rounds are often "lottery ticket" picks. Let's peruse the late round FFCalc inclusions & exclusions to see what we can learn.Miles Austin shows up as the only CLE WR w/an ADP.A lot of lottery RBs I like have no ADPs, but here are a surprising ones who do: Bradshaw, J Stew & Helu.Manziel & McCown have ADPs. Flacco & A Smith do not.Richard Rodgers has an ADP. Tyler Eifert does notYou may or may not rethink all your MFL10 lottery picks after this card, but it's definitely interesting information worthy of thought & discussion.
I'm going to rethink a name or 2
Eifert a horrible exclusion
Way to go FFC, Eifert overrated, imoShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion
- It's a little tough to compare the mid-round picks against MFL10 ADP. I already showed this difficulty a little, with the QB comparisons. We did take a look at the first four rounds, objectively, but this is fairly subjective, IMO.Here is a laundry list of some mid-round names higher on FFCalc ADP, in some approximate order:Darren SprolesKhiry RobinsonDanny AmendolaTerrance WestDarren McFaddenBernard Pierce
Pierre ThomasDanny WoodheadFred JacksonFrank GoreJason WittenReggie WayneEmmanuel Sanders[Bold represent my emotions]
PIERRE THOMAS GOES HIGHER ON FFC!?
Not sure all that is justified, tbqh
Utter lack of NOS backfield fear
Some really savvy picks here, imoShare this Story×Google+View all MFL10 vs. FFCalc ADP Battle storiesposted by: ffrittleOpinion